Preview: USA – Slovenia

The US did well in their tie against England in their first game of the World Cup. Even though English goalkeeper Green gifted the Americans their tying goal, the team excelled in every aspect they needed to in order to get a positive result. Now the US is facing probably its most important game of the group stage against Slovenia. Anything but a win here will put the US chances of advancing to the next round in danger.

The US enters the game as the favorites to win, but the players are not taking Slovenia lightly. While the players in Slovenia’s starting lineup don’t have the flash or the fame that England’s squad have, they can play well enough together to get winning results. In order to qualify for the World Cup Slovenia played a heavily favored Russian team and did enough to earn a 2-2 aggregate and advance on away goals. Tying England in their first game and defeating Spain in the Confederation’s Cup has also made the US very familiar with what an underdog team can accomplish when they defend well and play as a team.

In their first game, Slovenia defeated Algeria 1-0 thanks to a goalkeeping mistake similar to Green’s and now sit at the top of the group. Slovenia’s tactics against Algeria have been described as identical to the US’s against England. Both teams focused on defending first. The central midfield pairing stayed back to defend more than they moved into the attack and the back four stayed behind in order to absorb the attacking runs they faced. In the attack both teams had a speed and size paring up top looking to take advantage of counter attacks, though Altidore doesn’t quite have the height for a target man, and the creative outside midfielders made diagonal runs at the defense more often than running down the sideline then crossing the ball.

Members of Slovenia’s team have stated that there is no strategy to alter their game plan when they play the US, so it may be up to Bob Bradley to make tweaks to our starting lineup to try and beat the defensive mindedness of Slovenia while also protecting against the counter attack. In order to break through Slovenia’s attack, the midfield will have to keep control of the ball while making smart passes. Switching out the more defensive Clark for the controlled passing of Torres is a change that we could see in the midfield, but that could leave the US a bit exposed for Slovenia’s counter attack. Possession will be very important in this game.

Bradley could also make a change up top. Robbie Findley has the speed to get past Slovenia’s backline and could be more of a threat coming off the bench late in the game when the defenders are tired. Dempsey would be a good replacement for Findley because it would open up a spot for an outside midfielder like Holden or Beasley and force the Slovenian defense to spread out, opening space in the middle for Torres and Bradley to get into the attack. Buddle could also find himself as a starter if Bradley wants to keep Dempsey in the midfield. Buddle has proven he can score at the international level and still has enough speed to cause problems for the defense.

I see no reason to change anything about the back line for the US. Onyewu showed no serious signs that he wasn’t 100% and while working with DeMerit the two of them contained Rooney and Heskey. Against Slovenia the pair will have to keep an eye on Novakovic who is Slovenia’s main attacking threat and has the ability to score in many different situations. Cherundolo played so well on the right side that England was forced to use a sub at half to keep him out of the attack and his defending was solid. On the other side Bocanegra wasn’t quite as effective matching up against England’s speed, but they weren’t able to make anything happen there either and Bocanegra is always a threat on set pieces. The only question was whether or not Howard would be able to play after getting injured during a collision with Heskey, but he has been cleared by the team and is expected to start against Slovenia.

Whether the US makes alterations to their lineup or strategy or not, a lot of this game is going to be decided on more mental aspects. Slovenia is going to look to continue the momentum of their win against Algeria as well as utilize the confidence that comes with being the top team of their group. With a win Slovenia will advance out of the group stage regardless of their final game against England. Even a tie will keep them three points above the US. The US will need to make sure that they enter the game focused in order to prevent a repeat of the lack of concentration that led to England’s goal. A tie or a loss for the US will put more weight on the results of the other games and might lead to the US hoping for a repeat of 2002 when they advanced with a 1-1-1 record because of goal differential.

Kick-off for the US – Slovenia game is scheduled for Friday the 18th at 9 AM CST and will be televised on ESPN. If you can’t make it to a TV you can also watch the game live on ESPN3.com where the game is also archived for those of you who may have to wait until the evening to watch.