2011 FIFA Women’s World Cup Preview – Part 3

Team USA – This Is Now

This is the 3rd article in a series of three to preview the 2011 Women’s World Cup in Germany which begins on June 26 when host and 2-time defending World Cup champion Germany kicks off against CONCACAF Champion Canada in Berlin. Writer Jerrod Roh will provide coverage, analysis, and opinion for the 2011 Women’s World Cup for IMSoccer News. He has attended the last 3 men’s World Cups in South Korea, Germany, and South Africa as well as the 2003 Women’s World Cup in the U.S. He is a self-described fan, student, and teacher of the game.

Read Part 1
Read Part 2

It’s Pia, Not Mia!

Following the negative drama of the 2007 World Cup, a change was made in the leadership of the U.S. Women’s National Team. Pia Sundhage was hired by the USSF to take the reins of the program. Her hiring represented the first time our women’s full team has been coached by someone with foreign citizenship. Many U.S. players knew her as a players’ coach and a bright soccer mind. Her hiring was praised universally.

Pia hails from Sweden and had been serving as an assistant coach for China. She had coached in the United States as an assistant in the now defunct WUSA for the Philadelphia Charge from 2001 to 2002. She was given her first professional head coaching position in 2003 with the Boston Breakers.  She made the most of it as Boston won the championship and she was named Coach of the Year. After the WUSA folded in 2003, Pia went back to Sweden to coach in the professional league there. Two of her Boston players, Kristine Lilly and Kate Markgraf of U.S. National Team fame, followed her because they “wanted to keep playing for Pia.”  If Pia is good enough for “Lil,” then she is good enough for me.

Just in case you were wondering, Pia was quite the player in her day.  In 2000 when those who matter more than you and I voted for the FIFA Players of the Century, Pia finished 6^th in the voting. She scored 71 goals in her 22-year international career after registering 146 caps for Sweden. She retired from playing internationally and professionally in 1996 after the Atlanta Olympics. Pia was primarily a striker throughout her career, but also played sweeper and midfield.

Pia’s Team

Pia went to work immediately in 2007, trying to get our team ready to rebound in Beijing for the 2008 Olympics.  She clearly did a quality job of righting the ship, as the U.S. captured gold by defeating the same Brazil team who dismissed them so easily in the 2007 World Cup semi-final.  A hard-fought battle ended with a 1-0 victory for the U.S. after 120 minutes of holding the powerful Brazilians scoreless. Carli Lloyd scored the dramatic overtime goal in the 96^th minute. The center backs were speedy veterans Kate Markgraf (Sobrero) and Christie Rampone (Pearce) and the wide backs were the fleet of foot Heather Mitts and Lori Chalupny. Well looky there! Rampone at center back. It is my opinion that if this was done earlier in her career that we could have seen different results in 2003 and 2007. Oh well. Abby Wambach was out with injury for the tournament. Previously little used Angela Hucles led the U.S. in scoring with 4 goals in the tournament.

Pia has settled into using a 4-4-2 system of play.  It is geared toward getting our wide midfielders isolated in the attacking 1/3 to penetrate and get service into the box for our forwards. Our current wide midfielders are Heather O’Reilly on the right and Megan Rapinoe on the left. Both have been playing well, especially Heather. We have several players who can play quality long balls to switch the ball from faraway places to get Heather and Megan into good positions. With Wambach and Amy Rodriguez the primary targets for service from the wide midfielders, it would appear to be a great idea for a tactical focus for our attack as both Abby and Amy have historically been very good with their box play.

Typically we get 2 or 3 players in the box to attempt to finish crosses.  It is usually a forward or two and the opposite wide midfielder. It is usually only after significant build-up that Lloyd, from a slightly more forward spot in the central midfield, might find herself in the box trying to get on the end of a serve. Lloyd and Boxx just don’t have a great burst to get into the box to score very often, especially after the first 20 minutes of each half. Two or three runners is not a lot, so purpose and accuracy of our service and timing of the runs in the box need to be precise for scoring chances to present themselves.

Defensively, Pia typically has this group give ground in a more low pressure style to be a compact unit while allowing limited space behind our back line. Realize that once the ball enters our midfield block of players, she expects high pressure around the ball to force the opponent to play negative (backward) or to force the opponent to turn it over. We depend on our weak side wide midfielder to tuck in the middle more to help our center mids control the middle of the park. Since we commit our wide players forward in the attack as much as possible and since Boxx and Lloyd struggle to consistently cover the space in front of our backs, our back line is expected to absorb opposing midfielders trying to penetrate our back line running with or without the ball.

Why the U.S. Will Win

1)    The U.S. will win if the players whom Pia has put an emphasis on in her plan can handle the job. That means our wide players will perform well in their matchups game in and game out and will threaten opposing defenses with quality service into the box. That means that Wambach, who has scored one goal in 8 matches this year for Team USA, and Rodriguez will do well with their timing and adjustment of their runs to finish quality service. This means that our back line will consistently be up to the challenge of absorbing a good amount of pressure which is certainly coming their way from the better sides in this tournament. That means that Lloyd and Boxx will do at least a satisfactory job of controlling the middle and making a positive impact with free kicks and corner kicks like they usually do.

2)    Our back line has more pace and toughness player for player than the back lines with which we have ended each of the last two World Cups.  Rampone can flat out run – always has had that quality. She may have lost a half step now, but she is that much wiser and meaner. She is now the leader back there.  The other starting center back, Rachel Buehler, does not look like she would be able to run with the fastest strikers in the world, but she actually has some quality explosiveness. The key for her is to stay mentally sharp as a half wears on. If the opposition can send her on sprints into the corner in a foot race with a striker a few times per half, then she could tire and lose her explosiveness. It will be key for her to get a head start on sprints in behind the backline to deal with opposing strikers as time gets deeper into the half. Ali Krieger is the starting right back and has proven to be fast, smart, tough, and effective in building the attack. She knows the Germans well after spending significant time in the top division of their pro league. Amy LePeilbet is the starting left back, and has spent most of her professional and international career as a center back. She is considered an excellent defender, but may struggle under pressure to connect in the attack.

3)    We have the best goalkeeper in the world in Hope Solo. When Hope is dialed in and on her game, she is very tough to beat. Additionally, her distribution is second to none. Every now and then, Hope will give a goal away just by not reading the game properly. That could mean she is not respecting an opposing attacker in shooting range enough. That could mean that she feels her defender has the attacker under control and a shot is not coming when in fact it is. It is this lack of readiness that she has shown at times that she will have to eliminate against the powers that be if we are to raise the trophy. She may have to stand on her head for us to get through a match or two. If you are the best in the world, then you should be up to that challenge.

4)    Team USA is motivated!  We have gone down in lopsided defeats in the semi-finals in each of the last two World Cups. For a team and program that considers itself the best in the international women’s game, that is unacceptable. The veteran players on this team who went through one or both of those defeats have been humbled and are now hungrier than ever to get the job done on the World Cup stage.

5)    Pia is a great coach and will pull all the right strings to lead our team to victory. She will manage the lengthy tournament well by rotating a few different players through the starting line-up so that our key players still have some juice for the elimination round. She will recognize which players’ strengths are suited better to match-up with each opponent and make the line-up accordingly. She will not depend too much on any one player and rest even our best players when they are no longer effective.

6)    Germany will eventually cave in to the pressure of being the 2-time defending champion and/or become distracted by all the media demands on their time from being the heroines that they are in the host nation. They will be juggling too many things, and will shockingly exit the tourney without hoisting the trophy again.

7)    Brazil will let their emotions get the best of them. They want it worse than anyone, as they have never won a World Cup or an Olympics. In a nation who worships the game and their men’s team, the women want nothing else but to finally bring a major trophy home for the whole nation to see them  as a champion.  When adversity hits, they will implode and bow out not so gracefully.

Why the U.S. Won’t Win

1)    Boxx and Lloyd cannot cover the space! They are not fast enough over a 90 minute match to do their part in a 2-player central midfield. They are not the right combination to get the job done against the best in the world. They are both smart players who are tough competitors. They are strong in the tackle and great ball winners. They can both play great longs balls to spray it wide for the outside midfielders. Lloyd is good for the occasional goal from long distance. Boxx is great in the air offensively and defensively. But their lack of pace over 90 minutes creates more work for the rest of the team. Boxx is older now and Lloyd’s defensive work ethic has come into question several times in her career. This extra work for everyone else will add up over the course of a run in the tournament. If this weakness does not cost the U.S. in pool play, then it certainly will as the tournament continues. Pia should have looked at someone to play in combination with Boxx or Lloyd who can cover more ground and do more of the busy bee work ala Julie Foudy and Kristine Lilly of old. So, when the opposition is continually running at our back line and our backs finally get broken down, don’t be too irritated with them. I would look at why our back line is getting run at so much. (I would have given Lauren Cheney a serious look long ago as an attacking center midfielder – could learn the ball-winning and defending piece. She has the physical tools for both – size, quickness, aggression. She can strike the ball from distance and can break out of midfield with her pace. She has grown into quite the combo player with her teammates now as a forward. That of course could work as a center mid as well.)

2)    Wambach is washed up!  Abby’s time is over. She has not found her mojo consistently game in and game out since returning from the broken leg and the Achilles injury. I think Abby has become a better playmaker from her forward spot – a credit to her work ethic to continue to develop as a player even after reaching stardom. But she lacks any kind of bite any longer to beat a defender with the ball at her feet or getting played in behind defenders. She is a one trick pony to finish right now, and that is with her head off of service. The problem is that I feel as a half wears on now that Abby loses her ability to judge and adjust consistently to get on the end of service. I feel that nowadays, many quality crosses get played in with little adjustment from Abby. Service is not going to be perfectly placed every time. But I feel that Abby recently has not done well with service that I would classify as near perfect. Granted, she is often getting mugged in the box and it is difficult to adjust properly when you are in an arm lock. She did score 4 goals in 5 matches for her WPS side Magicjack these past few months.  I just think developing our attacking tactic around Abby’s aerial presence is risking too much. We have younger, faster, quicker, more dangerous forwards who can finish in the box but can also get sprung in behind the opposing back line and are a bigger threat to cook defenders. It is most likely too late now to change. By choosing this tactical emphasis, Pia has basically said that we are going to live or die with Abby in the run of play. Hopefully we get enough corners and free kicks to utilize her aerial presence even more. And on those, we get to throw in our other aerial bruisers who play in the midfield and in the back. Will this produce enough chances against the best teams to win our first World Cup since 1999?  I clearly have my doubts.

3)    Our left side is not where it needs to be. A well-documented battle has taken place for the starting left back spot between Amy LePeilbet and Stephanie Cox. Both have a respectable number of caps – 47 and 71 respectably. However, Cox is considered a defensive liability. If you watch her closely, she struggles to contain opposing attackers when pressuring the ball, and fails to win tackles. I don’t know if I have ever seen her stand up a world class striker. They might adjust a bit to get around her, but that has been about all she has been good for defensively. Cox has a great left foot and gets up and down the left flank to help in the attack. But she has been beaten out by LePeilbet because of her inability to defend. (Sad that this is the best we can do for a roster spot …… a wing back who cannot defend.) LePeilbet is right-footed, and if pressured properly, she may struggle to keep possession for our team. So, this battle at the left back spot is not two incredible left backs who have been battling it out to the very end. Pia has decided on the lesser of two weaknesses. Not a good sign if the goal is to lift the trophy.  Megan Rapinoe at the left midfield spot has been up and down. There are games where she is “on” and very effective. Other matches, she is turning the ball over too much in a non-risky time or place on the field. What I mean by this, is that when we are just building and possessing up the field, she turns it over. If she turned it over while trying to make something happen to score or create a goal, then I would not have as big a problem. But overall, I think Rapinoe has been very solid and could have a great tournament. We’ll see which Rapinoe shows up in Germany.  This overall problem on the left side makes me wonder if Pia has chosen the right formation/system for this group. A high level coach once told me that if you don’t have two quality left-sided players, you should not play with two left-sided players. Pick or design a formation/system that works best for your players.

4)    The rest of the world has decreased the gap. There is more parity now in the women’s game and nations whom we are accustomed to defeating could knock us off. North Korea earned a tie against the U.S. in group play in the 2007 World Cup and many feel they deserved the victory. They have played the U.S. in each of the last 3 World Cups. Could they finally get the job done and knock Team USA off in group play?

5)    We are just not in a good place right now. We struggled to qualify for the first time, finishing 3^rd in CONCACAF qualification and having to beat Italy in a playoff for the last spot. FIFA rankings mean very little as those of us know who follow the men’s international scene, so don’t put too much stock in our #1 ranking. Teams are not afraid of us. They know what we will bring, and we struggle to diversify in our attack. In the matches over the last few months, we have looked lackluster and out of sync at times. Our last tune-up in the pre-tournament camp in Austria, we lost a closed door scrimmage against Norway 4-1. Maybe it is just a cycle and all part of Pia’s master plan. Maybe she has her thumb on it and there are no worries. Maybe a 4-1 battering was what we needed to wake up and start playing better. Maybe it will make us sharper for the big stage. But maybe…just maybe…our team is in more trouble than even they realize.

Mighty Germany

The World Cup favorite is easily Germany. They have won the last two in the U.S. and China, and now they get to play at home. Their players play in the best pro league in the world for women – the Frauen-Bundesliga – in Germany. Host nations typically generate more energy for their team. Great examples of teams being inspired to new heights are best seen on the men’s side when South Korea made it to the semi-finals and Japan made it to the quarterfinals in the 2002 World Cup. That was easily the best either had done in a World Cup. France won their first and only World Cup when they hosted in 1998. If Germany feels any kind of elevation from being host, it may be too much for the rest to compete with.

Additionally, Germany has figured it out in developing FAST athletic players at every position. They have no weaknesses defensively. The top division of their pro league allows only 2 non-UEFA players per roster.  Each roster has a distinct majority of German players. It is great for the development of their national program. Their technical and tactical development continues at a solid rate as professionals with great coaching and great competition.

The German crowds will be very educated and energized. Stadiums full of fans will be in unison with songs and chants. They will also be experienced in how to try to influence referees to get calls for their team. The German people will be having a great time, and the German team will want to keep them smiling.

All this adds up to heavy favorite. Good luck to the rest of us! If the Germans win, they will be on quite the run in the young history of the event.

Viva Brazil

Brazil is awesome! When they are feeling good, they are the best team in the world. It is when things don’t go right that they have had a tough time in the past. In the last two major events, Brazil has throttled one of the other powers in the world in the semi-final round only to drop a close final match to earn a runner-up finish in both. In 2007, after dismantling the U.S. 4-0 in the World Cup semi-final, the Brazilians conceded two 2^nd half goals to fall 2-0 to the Germans. In 2008, Brazil thumped Germany in the Beijing Olympics 4-1, but then lost to the U.S. in the gold medal match in overtime.

Their star players are starting to get older, but with age comes maturity too. Brazil has been knocking on the door to win a major event. They have the talent and the experience. Now they should have the right formula to manage themselves on the big stage and sustain a performance through an entire event and finish the job. The reason they are the best is that they play with such emotion and feeling. They just need to channel those things in adversity and I think they should be able to do that now.

I have a theory that when a team comes close to winning a championship, but falls a bit short, they are a likely candidate to win the next time around.  They must have a quality, veteran team returning of course and be performing well.  But if they can get back to a similar place in the tournament, look for Brazil to have a hunger and a focus that will carry them to the championship. If Brazil wins, I will share some information that backs my theory. I will spare you all now though. I hope I am wrong. GO USA!!!

Pick-em

Group A

1^st – Germany

2^nd – France

3^rd – Canada

4^th – Nigeria

Group B

1^st – England

2^nd – Japan

3^rd – Mexico

4^th – New Zealand

Group C

1^st – Sweden

2^nd – USA

3^rd – North Korea

4^th – Colombia

Group D

1^st – Brazil

2^nd – Norway

3^rd – Australia

4^th – Equatorial Guinea

Quarterfinals

Germany over Japan

England over France

Norway over Sweden

Brazil over USA

Semifinals

Germany over Norway

Brazil over England

Final

Brazil over Germany

Jerrod Roh has served as an assistant coach for the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers Women’s Soccer Team since 2007. He’s also served as a Goalkeeping Staff coach for the US Soccer Region 2 ODP since 2005. Prior to coming to Minnesota, Roh spent three seasons at the University of Kentucky, serving as the top assistant while coaching the goalkeepers and serving as the program’s recruiting coordinator. Roh attended Kansas State University and graduated in 1995. He was a three-year starter for the Wildcats. He holds a masters in business administration from Western Carolina. Currently he is coaching the U15 girls team for Eden Prairie Soccer Club